I woke up one morning and I did not recognise the person lying in my bed; this was not me. She was rounder around the edges and she even had the dreaded ‘c’ thing on her thighs. I definitely did not know this woman. Eeeooohhhh! Her skin needed ‘Operation Revamp’ just to get out of the house. I won’t even mention the lack of hydration on her skin as that would need a dissertation.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
The Big Dread
Kenya
Kenya’s political situation – causes, effects, future scenarios
Odinga’s supporters say that the election was rigged and unfair. Violence erupted as ODM supporters refused to accept the outcome of the election. They believe that their leader, Odinga, was cheated through vote-rigging, and that Kibaki’s win represents a Kikuyu win, a sensitive issue in a country with entrenched ethnic rivalries dating back to colonial times. Ethnic tensions have been a feature of
Kibaki and Odinga’s supporters are said to be divided along tribal lines, sparking fears of ethnically-motivated attacks against the Kikuyu people, whom Odinga’s supporters feel have been overrepresented in the government and political sphere, while Kenya’s other tribal groups have been marginalised. Kibaki is Kikuyu, while Odinga belongs to the Luo tribe. Of more than 30 ethnic groups in
Burning and looting has ensued in
Having reopened after the holidays on 2nd January, the Kenyan Stock Exchange suspended trading the next day because of renewed violence in the capital. Auctions of tea and coffee (
To understand the events that have followed the presidential poll, it is necessary to understand some background of
A brief political history
Daniel arap Moi (of the Kalenjin ethnic group) succeeded the popular ‘Mzee’ Kenyatta as president of
Mwai Kibaki became president of
The Kibaki presidency
Kibaki succeeded Moi as president, having led the coalition party that won the December 2002 general election, the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC). Kibaki had the support of former president Moi, who endorsed Kibaki’s candidacy, saying that he believed Kibaki to stand for national unity.
Although Kibaki presided over
The NARC party saw some fundamental changes in 2007, when five of its senior members defected to a smaller opposition party (Shirikiso Party of
Kibaki announced in September 2007 that he would run for president under the banner of the Party of National Unity (PNU), a coalition of KANU and other parties.
Kibaki vs. Odinga…. A long-standing rivalry
Raila Odinga led the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which had broken away from the ruling KANU party before the 2002 elections. Odinga was said to have presidential aspirations even at that time, and the subsequent separation of his LDP from KANU resulted from dissatisfaction that Mwai Kibaki, and not Odinga, had been selected as Moi’s successor.
In the negotiations that ensued, Odinga was offered an executive prime minister position under the Kibaki presidency, a decision that required an amendment to the constitution. This process did not go smoothly, and Kibaki was seen to have reneged on his promise to Odinga. As a result, the proposed constitution was rejected by an LDP-Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) alliance.
Kibaki dismissed all seven of the LDP ministers who had rejected the proposed constitution, and they subsequently merged with the opposition to form an alliance called ODM-Kenya. This alliance became an official political party in 2006.
Odinga broke away from ODM-Kenya around August 2007, and the party was divided into two rival factions. Odinga’s camp retained the name Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
The presidential race was tight, with opinion polls in the run-up to the election showing an even split between the two men. Analysts drew parallels between it and
Implications for the Kenyan economy
In the run-up to the elections, the business sector was largely dismissive of the possibility of any adverse impact on the economy from the elections. The Central Bank governor of
So where to from here?
While the country is still in a state of turmoil currently, it is not envisaged that after the dust settles there would be any radical changes to economic policy. The country has seen strong economic growth and improvements in the business environment in recent years, and it will be in the government’s interest to maintain that trajectory. However, restoring relationships with the donor community, and the international investor community, as well as improved governance, will be critical to the continued success of the Kenyan economy.
The main sectors of the Kenyan economy are manufacturing, commerce, transport and communication, the hospitality industry and agriculture.
Transport and communication was one of the fastest growing sectors in 2007. This sector is at risk, as perceptions of safety in
Although the hospitality sector (hotels and restaurants) only generates 2% of national output, it has been one of the fastest growing sectors, and it is likely to also be impacted negatively.
Given its position as the economic hub of the East African region, a significant share of
The effects of
i) Re-tally
ii) Re-election
iii) Interim arrangement
Sources: Africana Encyclopaedia, edited by Kwame Anthony Appiah; Henry Louis Gates Jnr.
Standard Bank Group Economics.
Economist Intelligence Unit. Business
Mail & Guardian. January 4 to 10, 2008
Please email comments, suggestions and any input to: Afrodite on afrodite@mtnloaded.co.za
Tribalism
I tend to think of it as an important nostalgic tool that has the capacity to make me feel warm and fuzzy but will not get me into a war of any kind. I disagree with the manner in which tribalism on this continent is continuously sold to us as the source of all our problems. It equates us to bumbling cave dwellers and says that we are the only race on earth that lack dynamism. What is frightening is that we select leadership that is not committed to us and our well being but their own greedy and selfish ends. True, one does not become a career politician out of altruism (the genesis for some could be the latter but a lot happens later on as one graduates into a seasoned politician and have to deal with sharks that have no scruples) but I have to think that there must be men and women on this continent that simply want to see their countries and its citizens flourish and grow; and want to prove that they are the kind of leaders that can inspire a nation to greatness and instill pride in being an African.
I think of myself as South African, female, African, black, a sister, an aunt, a friend, a partner & lover, a reader, proud, etc, etc and the fact that I belong to a particular tribe is much lower in the hierarchy. Do not get me wrong, it is important to me but it does not supplant my country, family, continent and its people. I would have to say that I'd sooner "shoot to kill and ask questions later" if a someone I loved and my country were threatened. There is no tribe that has more of my loyalty than another, my own included.
I am probably being simple but I think good management/governance and attending to the necessary issues & challenges in a country lend itself to giving a nation the opportunity to evolve in other critical ways. (I cannot be certain that Maslow's hierarchy of needs is most definitive but it is an important guiding tool). I want to know why, why, why, we are stuck on tribalism. I can understand a level of upset about favours being bestowed on a particular leader's tribe/family but the question for me is what these alleged leaders are doing to ensure that every citizen has a chance to determine his/her own fate/destiny. Further, I doubt that the favour and benevolence allegedly bestowed extends to more than 5% of the tribe. I would hazard a guess that the majority of the hallowed tribe is yet to feel the benefit of their ancestral and genetic membership, and lucky to be alive in the said leader's lifetime. The curious point then becomes how the 95% (poor sods) who are not any closer to being blessed with the crumbs at the king's table, can allow themselves to be roused to agitate and protect a greedy and selfish minority in their midst.
If we are to be believe the rhetoric about favour being bestowed on a certain tribe in the South African (SA) context, the Eastern Cape should by rights and the tribalism logic, be the most organised, well educated and wealthiest province in SA. However, the last I checked, that is not the case. The Eastern Cape and Limpopo could be borne of the same genetic seeds, what with their similar challenges - the worst for me being the high levels of illiteracy and abject poverty plaguing them both. The favoured tribe, my fancy left foot!
The challenges are the same and in some cases even worse but we let some mindless twits outwit us all. Populism, a need for earthly messiahs and thinking on an empty stomach are the biggest enemies hindering true leadership and phenomenal development on this continent. It is time that we demand some basic things from our leadership: sustainable food supplies, housing, education, jobs, safety & security, accountability & responsibilities (there must be no holy cows, none), good basic health and the use of their skills for the good.
We are getting tediously boring as Africans, we learn nothing (we replace one despot with another with agile ease), insist on using one homogeneous brain - who would have thought that possible with so many intelligent, skilled, reasonable, talented and amazing Africans, and we seem not to hold ourselves with much esteem and regard.
Those that will insist on seeing this as 'bash the African yet again' note would have missed the point completely and I pity you and others that may be driven to gleeful orgasmic fits and call this Africans attacking each other must finish the repairs on your spaceship and find another planet to inhabit.
Famous African proverb: "it takes a village to raise a child"! I am who I am because of so many Africans and want the opportunity of giving my children a country and continent they can brag about instead of crying & cringing by its mere mention. Let us adopt an attitude of: It stops here and never again!
mtb, jhb, 08.01.08